(These are excerpts from my book "Intelligence is not Artificial")
Humorous Intermezzo: Bayes and The End of the World
In 1983 physicist Brandon Carter introduced the "Doomsday Argument" later popularized by philosopher John Leslie in his book "The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction" (1996). This was a simple mathematical theorem based on Bayes's theorem demonstrating that we can be 95% certain that we are among the last 95% of all the humans ever to be born. Leslie calculated that we will reach this point in about 10,000 years. It has been tweaked up and down by various dissenters but, unlike Singularity Science, it sits on solid mathematical foundations: in fact, the exact same foundations (Bayesian reasoning) of today's popular deep-learning neural-networks like AlphaGo.
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