- (December 2005)
Dangerous demagogy.
Leftist and Indio candidate Evo Morales won a presidential election in Bolivia that
could mark the end of a long period of instability in one of the poorest
countries of Latin America (and, since Latin America has been passed by just
about every continent except the poorest regions of Africa, this means
that Bolivia is one of the poorest countries in the world).
Morales' election cannot just be a coincidence. It comes after the re-election
of Chavez in Venezuela and after the election of leftist candidates all over
Latin America, from Brazil to Uruguay. This is a general rebellion by the poor
against the white-dominated governments.
Like Chavez, Morales has campaigned on an anti-USA platform. Anti-Americanism
sells. Morales plans to revoke the contracts that allow foreign corporations
to exploit Bolivia's resources (mainly oil and gas).
But Morales has forgotten to tell the USA is only one of the countries
that will be affected, and, as a percentage of their economy, the USA will
be affected less than others, namely Brazil, which happens to be the biggest
importer of Bolivia's gas. (The fact that it is fashionable to demonstrate
against the USA does not mean that the USA is the biggest exploiter).
Morales also forgot to mention to his voters two more details: that the USA
is the single biggest contributor of foreign aid to Bolivia; and that
Bolivia exports $160 million of goods every year to the USA, thanks to the
fact that previous governments obtained the "privileged trading partner" status.
Those exports roughly account for 100,000 jobs and, contrary to what
anti-globalization activists claim, those are usually high-salary jobs (by
the standards of Bolivia).
One wonders what will happen to those 100,000 jobs if the USA changes its
policy towards Bolivia.
It is never a good idea to bite the hand that feeds you.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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- (October 2003)
Effects of the war on drugs.
In october 2003, Bolivia's president Sanchez de Lozada has resigned following weeks of violent protests throughout the country.
About 12 years ago, George Bush senior launched the war on drugs with much fanfare. Clinton continued that war with renewed fervor throughout South America.
The results of that war have been pathetic at best (there has been no decline in the amount of drugs consumed by western people, and druglords throughout the world are still free to conduct their business).
Unfortunately, the war on drugs has had a devastating effect on the poor people
of South America. They relied on coca leaves for a living. When their coca
plantations were eradicated, they lost everything. Many of them migrated
to the cities and became part of the underworld of the jobless/homeless/nameless
tramps. The USA provided absolutely no assistance for the masses of poor
farmers who were displaced by the war on drugs. In fact, the USA keeps
subsidizing its own farmers, thus making sure that any new agricultural
product from South America does NOT find a market in the USA. The farmers
who used to grow coca leaves cannot grow anything else that Americans would buy.
If they switch from coca to bananas or rice, they will simply find no customers.
Until 1998, Bolivia was considered a moderate economic success.
US-educated president Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada created one of the most
vibrant economies in Latin America. Growth
rate reached 6%, although (as usual in South America) many of the dispossessed
didn't see any of it. However, in 1998 the war on drugs reached Bolivia.
The Clinton
administration convinced the Bolivian government that Bolivia could become
like Colombia (a lawless country). The Bolivian government
began an eradication program that destroyed about 90% of coca production.
In the meantime, former dictator Hugo Banzer had been elected president
of Bolivia.
What Clinton and Banzer
neglected was that coca production was fueling the fragile Bolivian economy.
It was giving jobs to hundreds of thousands of peasants and these peasants
were, in turn, giving jobs to hundreds of thousands of Bolivians who worked
in manufacturing, agriculture, transportation, etc. By removing coca
production without offering an alternative, Clinton and Banzer
basically destroyed the Bolivian economy overnight.
This great act of stupidity caused exactly what Clinton wanted to avoid:
Bolivia became more and more similar to Colombia. The poor (mainly the Indios,
who make up 60% of the Bolivian population) became more
and more disaffected with the government. Druglords were able to recruit
more and more sympathyzers. Remnants of Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path,
the Peruvian guerrilla movement of the 1980s) relocated to Bolivia and found
a new career as defenders of the Indios.
In the 2002 elections (called after Banzer resigned because he was dying of
cancer), it was a defender of the coca growers, Evo Morales,
who finished second after Sanchez de Lozada.
The same Morales then engineered the
protests that brought down the democratically-elected president,
Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada. Many in Bolivia believe that Morales
succeeded because the druglords funded his efforts.
Sanchez de Lozada
has paid for political mistakes made by his predecessor and
by the Clinton administration. More importantly, he
paid for having refused to please the druglords.
He was succeeded by his vice-president, Carlos Mesa, who will be careful
to avoid the president's mistake.
Bolivia is now just like Colombia: the government will have to negotiate with
the druglords and the rebels.
A timeline of Bolivia:
1824: Simon Bolivar liberates the country from Spain
1884: Bolivia loses its seaside areas to Chile
1932: Bolivia and Paraguay go to war over border areas
1935: Bolivia loses the war against Paraguay
1952: the poor of Bolivia seize power and Victor Paz Estenssoro returns from exile to lead a new government
1964: Rene Barrientos stages a military coup in Bolivia
1967: Ernesto "Che" Guevara is killed by USA agents in Bolivia
1980: Hugo Banzer stages a coup in Bolivia and assumes absolute power
1980: a military coup overthrows Banzer in Bolivia
1982: Siles Zuazo becomes president of Bolivia, replacing the military junta with a civilian government
1985: the Bolivian parliament chooses Paz Estenssoro as president
1989: Jaime Paz Zamora is elected president of Bolivia
1993: US-educated Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada is elected president of Bolivia
1997: former dictator Hugo Banzer is elected president of Bolivia
2001: Banzer resignes as president of Bolivia because of cancer
2002: Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada is re-elected president of Bolivia but a defender of coca growers, Evo Morales, comes second
2003: Bolivian president Sanchez de Lozada resignes following weeks of violent protests throughout the country
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