- (october 2013)
Israel vs Iran.
Israel's mass appeal continues to decline. First there was the Arab Spring,
that pretty much removed the argument that Israel is the only legitimate
democratically-elected regime in the Middle East; and now there is a peace
overture by Iran's new president.
Just like with the Arab Spring, Israel has reacted hysterically
at the notion that Iran might be willing to negotiate with the USA (and
viceversa).
Whenever one of its enemies reforms itself and becomes acceptable to the
international community Israel loses a bit of its standing in the world; it
becomes less special and less worthy of being protected.
US spending $100 million to promote regime change: what if Iran spent
Iranian nuclear program not proven
Libya surrendered weapons of mass destruction
Israel destroyed Syria's
A nuclear Iran would be a bigger problem for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt
and especially the small emirates and kingdoms of the Persian Gulf than for
Israel
Iran's president extends his hand to the president of the USA
meanwhile Syrian president Bashar al-Assad is suddenly accomodating about
destroying his arsenal of chemical weapons
Israel fears that,
finally, the USA might realize what has been obvious all along, just
hidden behind all the rhetorical accusations: Iran has been an island of
stability since 1988 (end of the war against Saddam Hussein)
while Israel has been engulfed in wars in both Lebanon and Gaza and has never
solved the problem of a huge minority (the Palestinians) that has no civil
rights;
Iran shared the same enemies with the USA (Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the
Taliban in Afghanistan) and in fact was the only one that fought militarily
against both when the USA was asleep at the wheel.
At close scrutiny, any conciliatory gesture by the Iranian elite must be
viewed as sensational. The USA spends about
$100 million per year to promote regime change in Iran: what if Iran spent
that amount to destabilize the USA? In fact, Iran does spend that amount to
destabilize Israel (via Hezbollah) and, sure enough, it is branded a supporter
of terrorism. Why isn't the USA a supporter of terrorism when it does the
same thing to Iran?
When Chinese hackers used the Internet to steal valuable information from
corporations, universities and agencies in the USA, the USA reacted angrily;
but the first major case of government-sanctioned hacking was when hackers
working for the USA
and Israel managed to destroy several nuclear centrifuges in Iran.
How would Israel react if Iran found a way to destroy its nuclear centrifuges?
To start with, the Iranian nuclear program is not proven. There is certainly
evidence that Iran wants to get to the point that it can manufacture an atomic
bomb at will, but no evidence that it actually wants to do what North Korea
did (at the huge political cost of alienating its main ally, China).
In any event, it would be difficult to blame Iran if indeed it were trying to
build a nuclear weapon. Qaddafi of Libya surrendered his weapons of mass
destruction, and within a few years his regime was dismantled and he was
murdered. Israel destroyed Syria's nuclear facility and within a few years
Assad's regime became the target of a civil war very similar to the Libyan one.
On the other hand North Korea, Pakistan and Israel itself (countries that
actually have nuclear weapons) are treated with great respect by the USA.
The USA must have noticed that something is different this time.
Iran's president extends his hand to the president of the USA just when
Syrian president Bashar al-Assad is suddenly accommodating about
destroying his arsenal of chemical weapons (as agreed between the USA and
Russia). Iran is Syria's protector. It would be difficult to believe that
Syria accepted the deal without first consulting with Iran. And one reason
why Syria accepted the deal could be that Iran "advised" it that way.
This is not to say that Iran is a kind, friendly, trustworthy regime; but
many aspects have been neglected over the years in the name of adopting
Israel's demonizing viewpoint; and many in the USA will start realizing it
if Iran's president turns out to be sincere. This is what terrifies the
prime minister of Israel, who has made a career of disparaging Arabs and
Iranians in the USA.
It is not even clear whether Israel would be the target of an Iranian
nuclear program.
A nuclear Iran would be a bigger problem for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt
and especially for the small emirates and kingdoms of the Persian Gulf than for
Israel. There is virtually no chance that Iran would use a nuclear weapon
against Israel, knowing that Israel could retaliate tenfold.
The reason that Israel is so scared of Iran's nuclear program is the
negotiating power that comes with it. Iran would have to be taken much more
seriously by everybody, including the USA and Europe.
Israel's final arguments are that Iran is a tyrannical theocracy and that Iran is
secretely building a nuclear weapon. But these accusations sound laughable when
they come from a state that calls itself "Jewish" (hence theocratic) and
that was the first one (and still the only one) in the Middle East to build
a nuclear stockpile.
The two countries that strongly oppose the negotiations between the USA and
Iran are Israel and Saudi Arabia, and the usual argument is that Iran's regime
is evil. That's an odd sermon preached by the likes of Saudi Arabia, a medieval-style kingdom in which women cannot even drive (let alone vote) and non-Muslims
are forbidden to enter two major cities (let alone practice religions other than
Islam), and of Israel, an illegal nuclear state that maintains a regime of
apartheid. Who are they to preach against a country like Iran, which is
certainly more democratic than Saudi Arabia and certainly less racist than
Israel.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2013 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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- (may 2013)
What not to do in Iran.
See my review of Leverett, Flynt and Hillay: "Going to Tehran" (2012)
TM, ®, Copyright © 2012 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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