- (june 2010)
Conspiracy Theory: what if they didn't do it?
North Korea has been publicly accused by South Korea of sinking a ship.
Unlike previous incidents in which North Korea boasted of its criminal actions,
in this case North Korea has vehemently denied any involvement.
Whatever motives North Korea usually has for its odd actions, denying that
the torpedoing took place at all nullifies any of those motives.
Furthermore, this was just about the worst possible time for North Korea
to escalate tensions, since it was making progress with the USA (after the
visit of former president Bill Clinton) and it was receiving badly needed
aid from South Korea.
On the other hand, two players in the region greatly benefited from the
incident. The USA was under pressure to close its military base in Okinawa,
Japan. After the incident the USA managed to convince public opinion in Japan
that the military base is a necessary evil. Before the torpedo incident,
nobody would have bet a penny on the USA base. The other beneficiary was
South Korea's prime minister, who is facing the worst economy in the country's
history and needs a boost before the coming elections. North Korea's torpedo
helps him justify his pro-USA stand.
China has been skeptic about the whole episode. Most commentators assumed that
China is simply playing its cards with the USA. What if, instead, China is
simply... skeptical? There is a long history of fabricated incidents that
never happened (and of weapons of mass destruction that never materialized)
to justify skepticism when the USA or one of its allies screams "wolf"!
After all, North Korea immediately offered to contribute to the investigation
but South Korea did not allow it. North Korea did not behave like a bad guy
who has something to hide, but like a good neighbor who is upset at being
accused of an act that it didn't commit.
I am not a fan of Kim Jong Il and his brutal communist regime, but in this
case some caution may be in order.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2010 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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