- (Lebanon 2009)
Boom and chaos.
Lebanon is a country divided in three: a south controlled by the Shiite militia
Hezbollah (ferociously opposed to the existence of Israel), a center controlled
by a democratically elected government and its army, and refugee camps that
are controlled by Palestinian militias.
Regional analysts claim that Lebanon is a microcosm of the entire Arab world,
because its internal tensions (basically between a party that leans towards the
West and its regional allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and an
anti-Western party that comprises Hezbollah and leans towards Syria if
not Iran) are the tensions that permeate the entire Arab world.
Lebanon was the first place to be torn by the ethnic and religious issues
that now devour Iraq. It now looks like Lebanon's democracy was a warning
that democracy in the Middle East means a a weak central government that has to
compromise with armed ethnic and religious militias.
However, Lebanon is different because here the Arabs are free to vote. Their
vote does matter. Furthermore, they will not vote thinking of the West, but
thinking of Syria. The two issues are not identical, as foreigners often assume:
one can be pro-Western in terms of lifestyle but advocate closer ties with
Syria (which is actually much more Westernized than, say, Saudi Arabia).
The domestic policy of Lebanon is still dominated by the issue of Syria, that
occupied Lebanon for several years (to its credit, that occupation ended the
bloody civil war).
Lebanon is a microcosmos of the Arab world in another key aspect: its
ambivalence towards Israel. On one hand, very few Lebanese will openly declare
their support for Israel. On the other hand, many of them would prefer Israeli
investors to Saudi investors, and many would probably prefer closer ties
with Israel than Syria. The Lebanese are painfully aware that Israel never
showed any respect for Lebanese and has messed with it recklessly (many blame
Israel for exporting the Palestinian issue to Lebanon and thus causing the
civil war). And they are aware more than anyone else of Israel's arrogance in
pursuing its objectives with little or no concern for civilian lives.
Yet, Lebanon aspires to be a capitalist, democratic and Western society: Israel
is its only "role model" in the region.
In the middle of all the political chaos the Lebanese have proven to be the
most resilient and creative people in the region. GDP grew 9% in 2008.
Exports increased 24%. The number of tourists increased by 50%.
There is only a distant echo of the global economic crisis.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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- (August 2006)
Mission Accomplished.
The famous "Mission Accomplished" banner that flew over George W Bush in 2003
as he was celebrating the "triumph" in Iraq has become a joke worldwide
(probably the second single biggest loss of credibility by the USA in its
modern history, second only to Colin Powell's presentation at the United
Nations in which he described in detail Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass
destruction).
Bush loves to entertain the world and expose the USA to ridicule, so he did
it again. He declared that Hezbollah has been defeated by Israel and that,
voila', the Middle East has been liberated one more time. Too bad that every
time the USA or one of its allies liberates a country of the Middle East only
ruins and chaos are left behind.
Hezbollah may not be the winner (as Al Jazeera and its Jihadists scream)
but certainly Israel is not a winner, nor is there any evidence that this
month-long carnage will lead to any stable peace. Israel is viewed by just
about everybody except the White House as the aggressor, that invaded a
country without any respect for international borders. Worse: its invasion
failed to achieve its declared objective of disarming Hezbollah. Therefore
Israel not only looks evil but also weak, possibly for the first time in
the last half century. The USA did not do anything to stop the aggression
and in fact sold high-tech weapons to Israel during the conflict, while
criticizing Iran and Syria for selling low-tech rockets to Hezbollah.
The numbers tell the story of who killed the most civilians: one thousand
Lebanese civilians dead versus one hundred Israeli civilians dead.
Based on simple body count, the Middle East (and probably most of the world)
views the USA guiltier than Iran. Worse: it views Iran as the winner of
this proxy war. From Morocco to Pakistan there is a feeling that Iran is
becoming the new leader of the Islamic world, the only Islamic country that
dares to stand up to the USA and actually gets away with it. Iran's victory
in this proxy war will certainly embolden the Iranian regime and possibly
cause a political earthquake in the Middle East: why bend to Condoleezza Rice's
push for democracy when the USA is weaker than Iran?
The USA, already weakened by the Iraqi quagmire and by countless accusations
of war crimes
(see Why the USA is losing in Iraq),
is now further weakened in the eyes of the Middle East and the world at large.
Chinese and Russian officials make openly fun of the world's superpower that
failed the first time it tried to impose its order on a region outside its
borders. It looked stronger during the Cold War (when it was not the only
superpower) than it does under George W Bush (when it is supposed to be
the only superpower left).
The first signs of what will happen next are already visible in two old hot
spots of the Islamic world. Afghanistan is witnessing a sudden
recrudescence of civil war: the Taliban must have figured that they surrendered
a bit too easily to the army that seems powerless against the Iraqi insurgents.
Somalia is now de facto ruled by Islamists who do not hide their preference for
their brother Osama bin Laden.
Talking of which: wasn't George W Bush the president who promised to catch
Osama bin Laden in a few days and gave him zero chances of escaping?
Bottom line: big mouths may get reelected but they do not win wars.
Bush should take lessons from people such as Osama Bin Laden (the leader of
Al Qaeda) and Hassan Nasrallah (the leader of Hezbollah), who do not promise
the moon but deliver what they promised.
Let us hope that both Hezbollah and Israel lost the war, and that the people
of Lebanon will emerge as the real winners, once the country is rebuilt.
The scary thought, of course, is that
this may turn out to be another USA-led "reconstruction" (i.e., a colossal
case of corruption, incompetence and anarchy). The Lebanese people probably
trust Hezbollah better than George W Bush to protect them and serve them.
TM, ®, Copyright © 2005 Piero Scaruffi All rights reserved.
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